Different consultants stated this state of affairs was not simply believable however seemingly.
“The general mental assemble of the paper I absolutely agree with,” stated Shane Crotty, a virologist on the La Jolla Institute for Immunology in San Diego.
If the vaccines forestall folks from transmitting the virus, “then it turns into much more just like the measles state of affairs, the place you vaccinate all people, together with children, and you actually don’t see the virus infecting folks anymore,” Dr. Crotty stated.
It’s extra believable that the vaccines will forestall sickness — however not essentially an infection and transmission, he added. And meaning the coronavirus will proceed to flow into.
“It’s unlikely that the vaccines we’ve proper now are going to offer sterilizing immunity,” the type wanted to forestall an infection, stated Jennifer Gommerman, an immunologist on the College of Toronto.
Pure an infection with the coronavirus produces a robust immune response within the nostril and throat. However with the present vaccines, Dr. Gommerman stated, “you’re not getting a pure immune response within the precise higher respiratory tract, you’re getting an injection within the arm.” That raises the probability that infections will nonetheless happen, even after vaccination.
Finally, Dr. Lavine’s mannequin rests on the idea that the brand new coronavirus is much like the widespread chilly coronaviruses. However that assumption could not maintain up, cautioned Marc Lipsitch, an epidemiologist on the Harvard T.H. Chan Faculty of Public Well being in Boston.
“Different coronavirus infections could or is probably not relevant, as a result of we haven’t seen what these coronaviruses can do to an older, naïve particular person,” Dr. Lipsitch stated. (Naïve refers to an grownup whose immune system has not been uncovered to the virus.)